What if Canada's carbon price accelerates past C$250 per tonne?
Canada's federal carbon price accelerates past C$250/t under a delayed-then-forced pathway, sharply repricing oil-sands and pipeline credit and lifting OSFI-modelled bank losses.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Canada's federal carbon price accelerates past C$250/t under a delayed-then-forced pathway, sharply repricing oil-sands and pipeline credit and lifting OSFI-modelled bank losses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -1.17–+1.61% · other way -0.09% (n=10) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -2.69–+1.76% · other way +4.61% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.08–+0.89% · other way +0.83% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.85–+4.48% · other way +4.97% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.01–+1.35% · other way -2.08% (n=12) |
| 6 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.67–+0.95% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.22–+0.68% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 8 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.14–+0.55% · other way +2.77% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.02–+2.54% · other way +8.64% (n=10) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.11–+4.1% · other way +20.09% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.47–+18.58% · other way +4.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–-0.04% · other way +1.92% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.17–+20.48% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.13–+0.07% · other way +1.74% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 74% | 30 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 30 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 30 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -3.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +2.5% | 62% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +3.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.2% | 57% | 30 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |