What if full EU CBAM enforcement sharply erodes EM exporters' market access?
Full EU CBAM enforcement imposes carbon levies on imported steel, cement, aluminium and fertiliser, sharply eroding EM exporters' EU-market access and export revenues.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Full EU CBAM enforcement imposes carbon levies on imported steel, cement, aluminium and fertiliser, sharply eroding EM exporters' EU-market access and export revenues. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.13–-0.39% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.08–+0.34% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.65–+1.7% · other way +2.29% (n=11) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.51–-0.25% · other way +2.38% (n=11) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.89–+-0.0% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.79–+1.89% · other way -0.35% (n=11) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.22–+1.37% · other way +3.79% (n=11) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.83–-0.23% · other way +2.73% (n=11) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.26–+0.69% · other way +4.12% (n=11) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.91–-0.01% · other way -4.57% (n=9) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.91–-0.27% · other way -0.46% (n=11) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.39–+0.39% · other way -1.87% (n=11) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.87–+0.64% · other way -0.56% (n=11) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.51–-0.18% · other way -0.81% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.2% | 74% | 38 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 37 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.3% | 69% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 17 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 17 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |