What if CEE defense-spending surge widens regional deficits?
A coordinated Polish, Romanian, and Baltic rearmament push blows out CEE fiscal gaps and bond supply, lifting term premia even as defense suppliers rally.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coordinated Polish, Romanian, and Baltic rearmament push blows out CEE fiscal gaps and bond supply, lifting term premia even as defense suppliers rally. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.01–+1.25% · other way -2.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.11–+1.32% · other way -2.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.27–+0.74% · other way -3.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.69–+0.87% · other way +25.41% (n=12) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+0.08% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.15–+5.45% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.18–+2.09% · other way +6.5% (n=11) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.61–+0.19% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+0.27% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.3–+1.91% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 37 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -7.4% | 65% | 12 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +2.7% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.7% | 55% | 22 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |