What if Cheap-oil disinflation lets the Fed cut faster?
A sustained crude glut pulls headline inflation down and frees the Fed to ease more than markets price; real yields and the dollar soften while risk assets rally on the disinflation tailwind.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A sustained crude glut pulls headline inflation down and frees the Fed to ease more than markets price; real yields and the dollar soften while risk assets rally on the disinflation tailwind. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.33–+3.96% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.35–+11.9% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.14–+1.36% · other way +0.25% (n=5) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.13–+4.66% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.05–+8.99% · other way +2.36% (n=5) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.25–+1.15% · other way +0.33% (n=5) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.64–+1.2% · other way +12.84% (n=5) |
| 9 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–+0.08% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.03–+0.35% · other way -0.92% (n=5) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.05–+0.32% · other way -0.13% (n=5) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.41–+2.18% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -16.14–+19.56% · other way +15.26% (n=5) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.22–+0.83% · other way +0.55% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -4.4% | 73% | 21 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 72% | 11 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.1% | 67% | 23 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.8% | 70% | 19 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +2bp | 70% | 22 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 17 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 17 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 11 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.8% · 5d +5.9% | 57% | 8 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 19 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |