What if China grain-demand softening loosens the global feed market?
A shrinking Chinese hog herd and slower feed demand cut import appetite for corn and soymeal, easing world feed-grain prices and freight.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A shrinking Chinese hog herd and slower feed demand cut import appetite for corn and soymeal, easing world feed-grain prices and freight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▼ · China growth ▼ · Diesel ▼ · Food inflation ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.92–+0.16% · other way -1.9% (n=10) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.27–+0.35% · other way -1.03% (n=10) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.0–+0.74% · other way -2.14% (n=10) |
| 4 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.68–+0.17% · other way -3.73% (n=7) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.7–+1.16% · other way -2.71% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 32 | 0.19 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.6% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 44% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 41% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | · |