Diesel
Every scenario in which diesel is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
146 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Europe's refineries shut down and leave it short of diesel?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-led product pull drags crude higher despite ample supply?
45%▼ 1–3 years
What if EV truck adoption erodes diesel demand structurally?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Refining-capacity shortfall lifts gasoline cracks structurally?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
40%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-led inflation pulse complicates central-bank easing?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Light-sweet glut, heavy-sour scarcity widens the quality spread?
38%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-gasoline spread widens as winter heating bites?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if Biofuels and renewable diesel chip away at distillate demand?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if Methanol and ammonia bunkering erodes marine-fuel oil demand?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trucking and freight margins jump on a diesel-price collapse?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Product-led crude pull as crack spreads outrun flat price?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel demand rebounds as global manufacturing turns up?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if Industrial slowdown craters diesel and gasoil demand?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Record refinery runs pull crude tight despite ample supply?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if Distillate glut as diesel and jet build together?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russian refinery-strike wave lifts diesel cracks?
34%▼ 6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopening normalizes freight and collapses diesel cracks?
34%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cheap diesel disinflation eases goods-price pressure?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Global refining shortfall as closures outpace new capacity?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if IMO low-sulfur rules re-tighten the middle-distillate balance?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if China grain-demand softening loosens the global feed market?
32%▲ 0–6 months
What if Panama Canal drought re-disrupts grain and diesel freight?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if a refinery turnaround wave triggers a US diesel shortage?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dangote refinery ramp floods Atlantic basin, collapses cracks?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico Pemex output slide flips it to a net crude importer?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Diesel crack spike squeezes trucking and farm operators?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if Panama Canal rains restore draft and unclog grain freight?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Rhine low-water shock chokes European grain and diesel barges?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Record sunflower-and-rapeseed oil crop eases vegoil inflation?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks structurally elevated?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if Black Sea export ceiling diverts cargoes and spikes freight?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if High-water Rhine season normalizes European barge freight?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mississippi River low water repeatedly halts grain barges?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if Global oilseed surplus crushes meal and biodiesel-feed prices?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Refining-margin boom lifts Valero, Marathon and Phillips 66?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Mideast mega-refineries glut diesel, gasoil crack collapses?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Mississippi high-water season restores cheap grain barging?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US rail-and-export logjam strands grain at the Gulf?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Record canola-and-rapeseed crop eases the global oilseed squeeze?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Biofuel-mandate rollback frees corn and vegoil back to food?
23%▼ 6–18 months
What if African Swine Fever resurgence guts Chinese feed-grain demand?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Biofuel-mandate hike diverts corn and vegoil from food?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chinese refined-product export quota surge gluts Asian cracks?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Suez-Bab-el-Mandeb diversions lengthen grain supply chains?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopens to Suez, freight collapses?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Red Sea convoy regime restores tanker flows?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Dangote kills Europe's gasoline export outlet, cracks crater?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Crack collapse squeezes Valero and Marathon refining margins?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if a new El Nino drought chokes the Panama Canal?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Refinery fire removes 0.4 mb/d of US Gulf-Coast capacity?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Renewable-diesel wave from US and EU undercuts ULSD demand?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if catastrophic floods paralyse the Rhine and Danube?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela sanctions snapback strips 0.8 mb/d of heavy crude?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Crack-spread boom widens XOM and CVX downstream earnings?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global refining-capacity wave compresses cracks toward breakeven?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Abundant cheap fuels broaden the global disinflation impulse?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi surge re-shuts the Red Sea?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gulf freight and insurance normalize post-truce?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Yemen peace deal ends the Houthi shipping threat?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Polar-vortex freeze-off shuts in US wellhead supply?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Global diesel tightness lifts ICE gasoil to a structural premium?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Product glut plus mild weather pushes diesel crack to single digits?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Crude-to-chemicals refineries glut petchem-linked product streams?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Wide cracks trigger refiner buyback surge across the sector?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global diesel surplus pushes the gasoil crack to a cyclical floor?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if EV penetration strands marginal refining capacity and forces early closures?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran-deal sanctions relief revives tanker oversupply?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if South China Sea oil-route fear lifts Brent and Asian fuel cracks?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ukraine deep-strikes Russia's energy heartland?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz transit insurance normalizes after standoff?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Insurers lift the Gulf war-zone tag as calm returns?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-import spike for Egyptian power strains the trade gap?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if US distillate inventories hit multi-decade low, diesel crack blows out?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sanctions on Russian products tighten the global diesel market?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Lean global refining keeps product cracks structurally wide?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pemex refinery struggles keep Mexico a structural gasoline importer?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gas glut and weak cracks trigger an energy-sector capex retreat?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Tight gas and fat cracks drive a banner year for XLE?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Distillate-crack collapse hands transport and industry a cost windfall?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if ransomware forces another major fuel pipeline shutdown?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea diversion keeps diesel cracks elevated?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia oil-export disruption tightens the global balance?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Houthi ceasefire collapses Red Sea war-risk rates?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Tight diesel and jet lift the whole middle-distillate complex?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-led freight inflation: distillate squeeze lifts core goods?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if tight global refining and low distillate stocks spike diesel and jet-fuel prices?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf war premium ignites a tanker rate super-spike?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Twin Gulf-Coast hurricanes knock out refining for a month?
13%▲ 0–6 months
What if US Gulf-coast refinery fire knocks out 600 kb/d of capacity?
13%▼ 6–18 months
What if Weak freight and warm winter crush US distillate demand?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Diesel-gasoline spread inverts as freight booms, travel softens?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Distillate-tightness shock lifts global diesel above $130/bbl?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks reroute tankers around the Cape and tighten crude supply?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if a US industrial recession collapses diesel demand and signals broad activity weakness?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hormuz tanker attacks reopen the war-risk bid?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf shock spikes diesel and gasoline cracks?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Yemen war reignites, Houthis hit Saudi oil again?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi anti-ship missiles extend to the Arabian Sea?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gulf escalation triggers a refiner sour-crude scramble?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cold-snap heating-oil squeeze spikes the diesel crack above $50/bbl?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi Red Sea attacks reroute products, widen East-West cracks?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if US SPR-style heating-oil reserve release caps a distillate squeeze?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a European diesel crunch spikes freight, farming and heating costs?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuelan heavy crude exports collapse back toward 2020 lows?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if tighter enforcement of Russian oil sanctions removes barrels and spikes diesel?
11%▼ 3–10 years
What if refiners pivoting to biofuels face costly conversions and stranded conventional units?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthis sink a laden crude tanker?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bab-el-Mandeb mining closes the strait?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Insurer war-zone redesignation freezes Gulf transit?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if European refinery closures tighten the diesel-import balance?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz scare spikes jet and diesel cracks on supply fear?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb forces long-haul tanker rerouting and widens differentials?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sustained drone campaign on Russian refineries tightens global diesel and gasoline supply?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if cascading diesel-export bans tighten the global middle-distillate market?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if hurricane outages on the US Gulf Coast spike diesel and gasoline cracks ahead of peak demand?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if tight global refining and strong freight demand blow out diesel cracks?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if major refiners restrict diesel and gasoline exports and spike refined-product prices?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gulf gas-export outage drags European TTF higher?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cat-5 landfall idles Gulf-coast LNG and refining for weeks?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Cascading Gulf-coast refinery outages spike PADD 3 gasoline?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Colonial Pipeline disruption spikes US East-Coast gasoline?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Simultaneous refinery and LNG outages spike US gas and cracks?
10%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hormuz-driven LNG and product scare spikes TTF and diesel together?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if years of refinery closures leave global diesel and jet supply chronically tight?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a cold winter and tight distillate stocks spike heating-oil prices in the US Northeast?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if tight refining and strong travel demand spike jet-fuel prices and raise airline costs?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a diesel-crack spike raises agricultural, freight and logistics costs across supply chains?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if major refiners' governments curb diesel and gasoline exports and fragment fuel markets?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if sanctions and OPEC+ cuts disproportionately remove sour crude and spike diesel cracks?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Twin chokepoint shock: Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a fire strikes Reliance's giant Jamnagar refinery?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if an early cold spell spikes gas, heating oil and power demand simultaneously?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if deep OPEC+ production cuts lift Brent toward $110 and re-accelerate European inflation?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if Europe's dependence on long-haul diesel imports keeps middle-distillate prices structurally elevated?
8%▲ 0–6 months
What if a major hurricane simultaneously shuts Gulf crude production and Gulf Coast refining?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a wave of national diesel and gasoline export bans fragments the global product market?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a cluster of refinery outages spikes gasoline and diesel prices?
8%▲ 3–10 years
What if IMO carbon rules raise shipping costs and strand non-compliant vessels?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if China air-sea quarantine cuts Taiwan's fuel imports?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if sustained Red Sea tanker attacks lengthen European crude supply lines and lift diesel cracks?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a crude shock and tight refining drive diesel into acute shortage?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea rerouting ties up the clean-product tanker fleet and tightens regional fuel supply?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a Hormuz closure sends Brent toward $180 and forces emergency stock releases?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a disruption to Caspian or Kazakh crude exports tightens Europe-facing oil supply?