What if China's subsidised solar, battery and EV overcapacity collapses into a bust?
Subsidy-fuelled overcapacity in Chinese solar, battery and EV manufacturing collapses margins to losses, stressing producer credit and triggering global trade friction.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Subsidy-fuelled overcapacity in Chinese solar, battery and EV manufacturing collapses margins to losses, stressing producer credit and triggering global trade friction. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.67–-0.03% · other way +2.43% (n=10) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.37% · other way +1.55% (n=10) |
| 3 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.84–+0.12% · other way -5.48% (n=4) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.93–+1.11% · other way +9.52% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.6–-0.26% · other way +7.6% (n=10) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.79–-0.2% · other way +2.62% (n=10) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.58–-0.26% · other way +2.53% (n=10) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.6–-0.14% · other way -0.09% (n=9) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.91–+0.26% · other way +0.72% (n=10) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.55–+0.31% · other way -0.74% (n=10) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.77–-0.09% · other way +6.12% (n=10) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.67–+0.24% · other way +1.74% (n=6) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.36–+0.92% · other way +4.21% (n=10) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.46–-0.23% · other way +9.02% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.9% | 73% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -5.5% | 65% | 31 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.0% · 5d -13.2% | 66% | 25 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.7% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.7% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |