What if China floods the world with subsidized steel and solar?
The clean chain is deflationary, not risk-off: subsidized Chinese steel/solar/chemical dumping collapses ex-China producer margins and goods prices, so short rival-nation industrials and ferrous/PV supply chains rather than buying the broad Nasdaq selloff the cascade implies. Rhymes with 2015-16 China steel/aluminum glut that gutted ArcelorMittal and US Steel and forced Section 232. Transmission: China exports the deflation; EU/US/India retaliate with anti-dumping duties, so the yuan softens and copper sags on the demand-glut signal. Forward angle: today the flood is in EVs/solar/batteries, where Western tariff walls are already up, blunting the price pass-through.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Subsidized Chinese steel, solar and chemicals flood global markets, collapsing prices and bankrupting rival-nation producers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.02–-0.5% · other way +3.31% (n=10) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.34–-0.55% · other way +0.86% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.2–-0.63% · other way +8.06% (n=10) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.92–+0.39% · other way +6.75% (n=10) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.97–+0.03% · other way -3.37% (n=5) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.0–-0.08% · other way +5.46% (n=11) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.29–+0.51% · other way +2.32% (n=7) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.5–+1.31% · other way +3.23% (n=11) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.09–+0.46% · other way +8.88% (n=10) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.96–-0.46% · other way +1.84% (n=10) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.52–+1.47% · other way +2.69% (n=10) |
| 12 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.35–+1.12% · other way +5.69% (n=10) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.71–-0.24% · other way -0.28% (n=9) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.15–+0.92% · other way +0.47% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short: MSTR's thin +3.5%/68% leans on the 2025 tariff-peak +65% BTC-bull window; a deflationary China export glut is bitcoin-negative, so the regime-biased history mis-signs the move.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.9% | 80% | 20 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.0% | 71% | 17 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -0.9% | 71% | 17 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 71% | 17 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 17 | 0.29 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -5.2% | 67% | 10 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -0.9% | 66% | 17 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 63% | 25 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 14 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Already-developing trend; Chinese overcapacity export flood ongoing in 2026 with deflationary global pressure. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.