What if China's e-CNY scales cross-border, chipping at dollar invoicing?
A wholesale e-CNY corridor for commodity and trade settlement gains traction, marginally eroding dollar dominance and supporting de-dollarization themes that bid gold over time.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A wholesale e-CNY corridor for commodity and trade settlement gains traction, marginally eroding dollar dominance and supporting de-dollarization themes that bid gold over time. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Gold ▲ · China stimulus ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.7–+1.26% · other way +1.03% (n=12) |
| 2 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.78–-0.37% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.1–+7.3% · other way -8.21% (n=12) |
| 4 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.34–+0.68% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.36–+0.77% · other way -7.55% (n=12) |
| 6 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.19–+0.66% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.52–+0.8% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.02–+1.48% · other way -5.09% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.09–+0.36% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 10 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.02–+0.37% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–-0.06% · other way -1.01% (n=12) |
| 12 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.02–+0.28% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist +0.8–+3.94% · other way -7.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +0.17–+3.71% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +0.3% | 73% | 39 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -6.2% | 63% | 37 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -7.0% | 61% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +0.9% | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 53% | 38 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |