What if China's labor exit removes the global disinflation anchor?
China's shift from labor exporter to aging dissaver removes the structural disinflationary force that suppressed global goods prices for decades, lifting baseline inflation worldwide.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China's shift from labor exporter to aging dissaver removes the structural disinflationary force that suppressed global goods prices for decades, lifting baseline inflation worldwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.55–-0.12% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.26–+5.56% · other way +27.71% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.35–-0.21% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.86–+1.61% · other way -8.46% (n=12) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.38–+10.34% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.21–+8.46% · other way +3.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.12–+1.16% · other way +0.49% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–+0.04% · other way +5.06% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.23% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.84–+0.23% · other way +2.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.1% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.51–+0.69% · other way -8.23% (n=10) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.34–+3.76% · other way -3.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.5% | 69% | 29 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -4.8% | 62% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +6.5% | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -6.8% | 58% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.9% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 42% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 40% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |