What if a clean-tech valuation bubble deflates as subsidies disappoint and rates stay high?
An overhyped clean-tech valuation bubble deflates as subsidies disappoint and rates stay high, inflicting drawdowns on renewables, hydrogen and battery equities and credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An overhyped clean-tech valuation bubble deflates as subsidies disappoint and rates stay high, inflicting drawdowns on renewables, hydrogen and battery equities and credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.73–-0.25% · other way +4.08% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.2–+0.3% · other way +21.7% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -12.16–+1.92% · other way -15.12% (n=8) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.06–+1.08% · other way +2.92% (n=11) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.67–-0.2% · other way -3.47% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–+0.05% · other way +0.2% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.6–+0.45% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.81–+7.76% · other way -9.07% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.27–+1.71% · other way +2.17% (n=8) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.7–+0.73% · other way +6.23% (n=9) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–-0.14% · other way -0.56% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.75–+0.53% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.59–+0.43% · other way -2.31% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -6.2% | 87% | 15 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.2% | 70% | 20 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.5% | 71% | 17 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d +1.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.7% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.4% | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 54% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 31 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |