What if successful climate-attribution lawsuits trigger large liability-insurance payouts?
A wave of successful climate-attribution lawsuits against carbon majors triggers large D&O and liability-insurance payouts, a casualty-side climate exposure the IAIS and NGFS are beginning to size.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A wave of successful climate-attribution lawsuits against carbon majors triggers large D&O and liability-insurance payouts, a casualty-side climate exposure the IAIS and NGFS are beginning to size. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.9% hist -1.15–+8.02% · other way -5.72% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.87–-0.13% · other way +0.23% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.37–+2.25% · other way +30.95% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.19% · other way +0.38% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.91–-0.06% · other way -0.84% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.94–+0.42% · other way -5.35% (n=9) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.56–+0.24% · other way +3.42% (n=11) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.92–+0.0% · other way -0.42% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.89–+0.51% · other way +7.96% (n=9) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.13% · other way +6.69% (n=9) |
| 12 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.52–+0.61% · other way -4.93% (n=11) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.02–+0.15% · other way -0.12% (n=11) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.3–-0.15% · other way +4.1% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +3.6% | 63% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +3.0% | 59% | 14 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.8% | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.9% | 55% | 25 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.9% | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |