What if climate-driven mass migration destabilises whole regions?
Climate mass migration is a diffuse multi-region destabilizer, so the modeled move is a moderate risk-off (VIX +5%) bleeding into semis/Nasdaq — but the chip-name granularity (Nvidia/AMD) is a weak fit for a migration trigger, which more cleanly hits food, borders and frontier sovereigns. Rhymes with the 2010-11 drought-and-food-price spikes that helped trigger the Arab Spring and regional instability. Forward angle: the durable expression is agricultural commodities, defense/border spending and EM sovereign risk, not US semiconductors.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Climate-driven mass migration destabilizes multiple regions and borders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Labor shortage ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.