What if a multi-day AWS and Azure outage froze global commerce?
A multi-day AWS/Azure outage is a revenue/SLA event for SaaS and commerce, but the cleaner trade is muted: it nicks AI-capex sentiment and risk appetite at the margin rather than breaking the semi thesis. Closest analogues are the Dec-2021 AWS us-east-1 outage and the Jul-2024 CrowdStrike event — both caused sharp, very short-lived equity wobbles that fully retraced. Skeptic's note: cloud outages have near-zero persistence in asset prices; this is a headline-fade, not a regime change.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A multi-day AWS/Azure outage disrupts global commerce and SaaS. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.54–-0.11% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.7–+0.8% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.74–+0.59% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -9.29–+1.53% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.16% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.58–+2.83% · other way +10.05% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.14–+2.37% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.0% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.97–+0.24% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.32–+0.37% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.64–+1.13% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.86–+1.71% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.38–+1.09% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -6.4% | 72% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
Why this probability
Outages frequent but multi-day global AWS/Azure disruption is rare. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.