What if CNH slides past 7.6 on tariff escalation?
Beijing tolerates a weaker yuan to cushion new US tariffs; USDCNH pushes through 7.6, exporting disinflation and pressuring Asian EM FX as a competitive-devaluation signal.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing tolerates a weaker yuan to cushion new US tariffs; USDCNH pushes through 7.6, exporting disinflation and pressuring Asian EM FX as a competitive-devaluation signal. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.28–-0.33% · other way +23.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.69–-0.05% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.33–-0.2% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.95–-0.11% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.12–-0.21% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.76–+1.27% · other way +4.72% (n=12) |
| 7 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.41–-0.05% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.21–+0.23% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.45–+0.26% · other way +4.56% (n=12) |
| 10 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.73–-0.17% · other way +3.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.87–-0.2% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.23–+0.67% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -14.72–+7.39% · other way -2.36% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.69–-0.26% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.2% | 73% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -9.5% | 70% | 19 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 25 | 0.30 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.2% · 5d -19.8% | 67% | 13 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 25 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.7% | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.5% | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 23 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |