What if Concentration unwind turns narrow leadership into narrow crash?
The same passive flows that lifted the top names reverse, and because the index is concentrated, the drawdown is violent and idiosyncratic. VIX spikes as the few crowded leaders collapse together.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The same passive flows that lifted the top names reverse, and because the index is concentrated, the drawdown is violent and idiosyncratic. VIX spikes as the few crowded leaders collapse together. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.