What if Coordinated openness on trade and migration cools US prices (good)?
A pivot toward lower tariffs and higher legal migration eases both goods and labor cost pressure; disinflation plus stronger supply lifts real incomes and broadens the risk-on backdrop.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A pivot toward lower tariffs and higher legal migration eases both goods and labor cost pressure; disinflation plus stronger supply lifts real incomes and broadens the risk-on backdrop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.04–+1.3% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.16–+1.25% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.46–+0.55% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.15–+1.83% · other way +7.69% (n=5) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -5.61–+15.73% · other way +10.49% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.17–+1.03% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.64–+2.78% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.83–+2.68% · other way -11.55% (n=8) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.45–+1.06% · other way +1.82% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.23–+0.47% · other way +4.03% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.31–+0.71% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.14–+0.69% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.45–+0.91% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 39 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.0% | 73% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.0% | 68% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +5bp | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +14.3% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -8.1% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |