What if a military coup topples a major G20 emerging economy?
A G20-EM coup is a local political shock, so the dominant channel is a global risk-off VIX bid forcing vol-target deleveraging into US high-beta — Nasdaq/semis lead down — while the local currency and bonds take the real hit (not in this US-centric cascade). Rhymes with the Aug 2015 China 'Black Monday' rout, where an EM scare spread mechanically into developed-market beta then largely reversed. Transmission: EM coup hits its trade partners and dollar funders; forward angle is that crowded systematic positioning makes the deleveraging leg sharper than the fundamental damage.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A military coup topples the government of a major G20 emerging economy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.