What if capital flight via crypto rails undermines China's currency controls?
Capital flight via stablecoins and crypto rails accelerates despite the domestic ban, undermining capital controls and adding to yuan depreciation and reserve-drain pressure.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Capital flight via stablecoins and crypto rails accelerates despite the domestic ban, undermining capital controls and adding to yuan depreciation and reserve-drain pressure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Crypto liquidity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.46–-0.13% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.41–-0.19% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–-0.09% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.96–+1.24% · other way +2.62% (n=12) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–-0.05% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.1% · other way +4.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.06–+0.24% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.06% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 9 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.29–+0.35% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+1.08% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.15% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -19.2–+1.83% · other way -6.51% (n=12) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.18–+0.56% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 14 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.22–+0.0% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.3% · 5d -17.0% | 78% | 28 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -4.8% | 68% | 33 | 0.27 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.10 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 34 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -6bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.6% | 53% | 34 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 34 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 34 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 47% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.5% | 48% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |