What if a heatwave forces data centres to shut down?
A heatwave forcing data-center thermal shutdowns knocks out metro cloud capacity — an infrastructure/uptime event, NOT an agricultural shock, so the wheat/corn/food-CPI cascade via 'climate_supply' is a clear mis-map (no crop is involved). Rhymes with the July-2022 London heatwave that downed Google/Oracle UK data centers. Correct read: power/cooling-capex and modest cloud-availability risk-off, not grains.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A record heatwave forces emergency shutdowns at clustered data centers, knocking out cloud capacity for a major metro. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · AI capex ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.