What if a heatwave forces data centres to shut down?
A heatwave forcing data-center thermal shutdowns knocks out metro cloud capacity — an infrastructure/uptime event, NOT an agricultural shock, so the wheat/corn/food-CPI cascade via 'climate_supply' is a clear mis-map (no crop is involved). Rhymes with the July-2022 London heatwave that downed Google/Oracle UK data centers. Correct read: power/cooling-capex and modest cloud-availability risk-off, not grains.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A record heatwave forces emergency shutdowns at clustered data centers, knocking out cloud capacity for a major metro. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · AI capex ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -11.23–+1.25% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.13–+8.48% · other way +20.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.41–+2.03% · other way +3.84% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–-0.07% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.7–+0.59% · other way +4.6% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.16–+0.09% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.0% · 5d -6.2% | 76% | 40 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -4.3% | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.8% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Heatwave data-center shutdowns have happened (2022 London); a metro-knocking cluster event in a 6mo window is plausible-low. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.