What if a neocloud defaults on its GPU-backed lease debt?
GPU-backed lease default is the AI-credit fragility trade: HY spreads gap, Nvidia sells off on neocloud demand-pull risk, and financials lead as the marginal lenders. The credit-contagion template is BNP Paribas Aug-2007 / Lehman 2008 — a single funding freeze repricing an entire collateral class. Forward angle: GPUs depreciate far faster than mortgages, so recovery values are worse than 2008 housing — but the systemic footprint is smaller and contained to private credit, not deposit-taking banks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A leveraged neocloud defaults on GPU-backed lease debt, exposing AI-infrastructure credit fragility. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.41–+0.71% · other way +4.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.32–+1.55% · other way +6.77% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.86–+0.19% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.63–+0.67% · other way +1.99% (n=12) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.11% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–+0.31% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.4–+0.02% · other way +2.14% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.44–+0.12% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–+0.01% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.39–+0.73% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.1–+0.56% · other way +9.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.48–+0.82% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.39–+0.4% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.18–+5.07% · other way -4.69% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade SHORT JPM: history is stale and contaminated — it averages a 2008 Lehman print with off-channel Micron memory windows, so +4.1% is meaningless for AI-lease credit contagion to banks.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 21 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 37 | 0.19 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.8% | 58% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.3% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +2.0% | 53% | 38 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 45% | 37 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Neocloud GPU-lease leverage real and fragile; 18mo window; first default plausible as rates bite. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.