What if soaring electricity prices in AI hubs push data-center costs above plan?
Soaring electricity prices in AI hubs push data-center operating costs above plan, eroding project economics and the debt service on AI-infra loans.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Soaring electricity prices in AI hubs push data-center operating costs above plan, eroding project economics and the debt service on AI-infra loans. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.01–+0.44% · other way +3.39% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.53–+2.65% · other way +4.6% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.46–+2.31% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.74–+0.99% · other way +1.18% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -14.3–+3.22% · other way -17.69% (n=10) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.14–+0.78% · other way +11.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.19% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.84–+3.24% · other way +0.32% (n=10) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.41–+3.42% · other way -6.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.67–+0.03% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.57–+1.9% · other way +3.99% (n=11) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.24–+0.06% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.34–+0.1% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.2% · 5d -6.6% | 86% | 14 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -2.8% | 71% | 17 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 33 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -3.7% | 69% | 16 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 25 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.5% | 57% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -3.8% | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |