What if Data-center power deals re-rate utilities, REITs and gas together?
AI-data-center demand simultaneously lifts utility rate-base growth, data-center REIT leasing and gas-fired generation, re-rating all three; the compute-to-power-to-real-estate chain becomes a coordinated AI-infrastructure trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. AI-data-center demand simultaneously lifts utility rate-base growth, data-center REIT leasing and gas-fired generation, re-rating all three; the compute-to-power-to-real-estate chain becomes a coordinated AI-infrastructure trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.74–+1.22% · other way +2.0% (n=11) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.2–+1.62% · other way +0.26% (n=10) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.35–+1.16% · other way +6.66% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.05–+1.02% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.08–+1.76% · other way +2.97% (n=5) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.22–+11.22% · other way -3.25% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.26–+1.23% · other way +0.76% (n=5) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.46–+1.64% · other way +3.17% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.38% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.86–+1.02% · other way -0.99% (n=12) |
| 12 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.43–+1.68% · other way -1.23% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.25–+0.47% · other way +1.57% (n=11) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.23–+2.95% · other way +6.22% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.2% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -8.4% | 64% | 31 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.6% · 5d +3.2% | 56% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |