What if Datacenter-demand disappointment de-rates the power complex?
Slower-than-hyped AI datacenter load growth — from efficiency gains or capex pauses — punctures the power super-cycle narrative, de-rating utilities, IPPs and electrical-equipment names together.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Slower-than-hyped AI datacenter load growth — from efficiency gains or capex pauses — punctures the power super-cycle narrative, de-rating utilities, IPPs and electrical-equipment names together. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.02–+0.73% · other way +7.84% (n=9) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.37–-0.13% · other way +3.09% (n=9) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.63–+0.56% · other way -2.29% (n=9) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.71–+0.42% · other way -4.64% (n=10) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–-0.09% · other way +1.46% (n=9) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–+0.12% · other way -1.27% (n=9) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.54–+2.72% · other way +27.53% (n=9) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.05–+2.01% · other way +1.67% (n=9) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.03% · other way -0.29% (n=10) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.08–+0.18% · other way +3.84% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.57–+0.44% · other way +7.18% (n=9) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.0–+0.56% · other way -7.31% (n=10) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.52–+0.07% · other way +2.46% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 70% | 26 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.32 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -6.1% | 67% | 19 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.25 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -4.8% | 61% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -4.3% | 60% | 21 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 38 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.13 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 56% | 29 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.1% | 54% | 35 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |