What if DAX sells off as a gas spike hits German industry?
A winter TTF surge raises German manufacturing input costs and curtails output, pressuring the DAX as energy-intensive sectors warn on margins.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A winter TTF surge raises German manufacturing input costs and curtails output, pressuring the DAX as energy-intensive sectors warn on margins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.18–+6.07% · other way -1.2% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.99–+1.46% · other way +20.69% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.65–+0.71% · other way +6.51% (n=9) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.49–+0.77% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–+0.2% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.75–+2.59% · other way -10.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.0% · other way +10.85% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.54% · other way +1.79% (n=12) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.28–+0.31% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.27–+0.29% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.85–+0.33% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.59–+11.35% · other way +26.4% (n=8) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–+0.71% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.6% · 5d +3.4% | 67% | 12 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 31 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -5.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 15 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 31 | 0.21 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.19 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +5.3% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 20 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 31 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |