What if Demographic labor-force shrinkage caps DM trend growth?
Falling working-age populations across advanced economies structurally lower labor supply and trend growth, raising the premium on automation; the demographic drag weighs on long-run global growth absent productivity offsets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Falling working-age populations across advanced economies structurally lower labor supply and trend growth, raising the premium on automation; the demographic drag weighs on long-run global growth absent productivity offsets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Labor surplus ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.65–+2.08% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.12–+1.82% · other way -2.69% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.61–+2.76% · other way +27.62% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.38–+1.27% · other way +0.23% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.32–+1.65% · other way +2.16% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.01–+0.33% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.14–+0.36% · other way -2.77% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.62–+3.68% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.1–+0.51% · other way +3.11% (n=12) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.72–+1.85% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.04–+5.0% · other way +0.93% (n=12) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.45–+0.6% · other way +6.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.32–+1.18% · other way -3.95% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +0.6% | 68% | 32 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 35 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.0% | 63% | 32 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.5% | 62% | 29 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 33 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.8% | 62% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 54% | 32 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 32 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 33 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 32 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |