What if Diesel crack spike squeezes trucking and farm operators?
A distillate shortage lifts diesel cracks sharply, raising freight and agricultural input costs and squeezing transport and farm-equipment names; the move feeds through to goods inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A distillate shortage lifts diesel cracks sharply, raising freight and agricultural input costs and squeezing transport and farm-equipment names; the move feeds through to goods inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.11–+7.15% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.38% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.73–+0.21% · other way +27.66% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–+0.5% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.57–+7.74% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.68–+0.23% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.98–+5.96% · other way +9.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +4.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 37 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 27 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.1% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 25 | 0.00 | · |