What if Digital-yuan cross-border rails gain trade share?
China scales e-CNY for cross-border trade settlement via mBridge, slowly widening yuan invoicing and trimming dollar dominance at the regional margin.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China scales e-CNY for cross-border trade settlement via mBridge, slowly widening yuan invoicing and trimming dollar dominance at the regional margin. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.37–+1.39% · other way +2.39% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.06–+1.3% · other way -0.72% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.7–-0.23% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.73–+2.82% · other way +25.38% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.71–-0.06% · other way +0.87% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.33–+2.07% · other way +4.36% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–-0.22% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.74–+5.38% · other way +23.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.41–+0.29% · other way -0.94% (n=12) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–+0.07% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.49–+1.99% · other way +12.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.21% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.77–+1.35% · other way +12.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -9.55–+4.38% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.0% | 67% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -2.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 32 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -16.6% | 63% | 17 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +2.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +0bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |