What if DIY-bio lowers weapon barrier?
Benchtop synthesis and AI design tools put pathogen engineering within reach of small actors, a structural rise in catastrophic biosecurity risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Benchtop synthesis and AI design tools put pathogen engineering within reach of small actors, a structural rise in catastrophic biosecurity risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biosecurity risk ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.3% hist -3.26–+20.72% · other way +1.84% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.0% hist -2.02–-0.45% · other way +0.19% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.25–+6.11% · other way +18.93% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.09–-0.92% · other way +1.96% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -0.91–+0.66% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.82–-0.2% · other way +1.11% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -8.11–+2.7% · other way +5.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.0–+0.71% · other way +1.42% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -6.2–+1.49% · other way +5.88% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.25–+2.09% · other way +1.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.13–-0.09% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.1–+1.18% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.08–+0.13% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.1% | 72% | 21 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 28 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 20 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.0% · 5d -6.3% | 68% | 15 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +15.9% · 5d +7.8% | 64% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.1% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 20 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -4.8% | 64% | 19 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.7% · 5d +0.4% | 62% | 8 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 20 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 25 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 21 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 26 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |