What if Dovish pivot reflation: Fed declares victory, financial conditions ease?
The Fed signals the hiking cycle is over and inflation is beaten, easing financial conditions sharply; the dollar softens, breakevens stabilize and risk assets rip.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The Fed signals the hiking cycle is over and inflation is beaten, easing financial conditions sharply; the dollar softens, breakevens stabilize and risk assets rip. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Credit spreads ▼ · Financial conditions ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -5.65–+15.28% · other way -1.63% (n=6) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.5% hist -2.31–+6.59% · other way +2.29% (n=3) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.27–+0.83% · other way +0.29% (n=8) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.26–+6.46% · other way +2.08% (n=5) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.62–+2.86% · other way +0.08% (n=4) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.37–+0.63% · other way -0.07% (n=7) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.2–+0.39% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.06–+1.49% · other way -2.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.13–+0.68% · other way +1.41% (n=6) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.77–+10.27% · other way +11.59% (n=3) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.05–+0.29% · other way +1.11% (n=6) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.02–+0.54% · other way -1.23% (n=9) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–-0.07% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 39 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.7% | 69% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.0% | 67% | 39 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +2bp | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.9% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |