What if Congo slashes its cobalt export quota toward zero?
A DRC cobalt-quota cut toward zero starves battery cathodes of a key input, but the real price action is in the cobalt/battery-metals complex and EV-cell makers, not broad Nasdaq semis. Rhymes with the 2018 cobalt squeeze and Indonesia's 2020 nickel ore ban, both of which spiked the specific metal hard. China controls DRC offtake and refining; it is both the chokepoint and the buyer, so it can partly self-supply. Forward angle: the mapped semiconductor/Nasdaq drag is mis-specified — this is an industrial-metal/EV story with limited tech-index spillover.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. DRC cuts its 2026 cobalt export quota toward zero, starving the lithium-ion battery supply chain of a key input. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.9–-0.45% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.92–-0.49% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.54–+0.9% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.58–+0.92% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.98–+0.67% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.77–-0.07% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.28–+1.68% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.29–+1.02% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.45–+1.11% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.51–+1.61% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.73–-0.03% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–-0.14% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.14–+1.29% · other way -0.53% (n=11) |
| 14 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.55–+2.05% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on FCX/copper: the -3.4% history is contaminated by gold/tariff windows (Comex copper-tariff, $3k gold) unrelated to a cobalt-quota battery-input squeeze; MSTR's +3.5% is BTC-bull noise on a thin macro channel.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -2.9% | 89% | 17 | 0.73 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 79% | 14 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -0.6% | 72% | 14 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -0.7% | 72% | 14 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 72% | 14 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -4.5% | 71% | 8 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +0.6% | 68% | 15 | 0.29 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.28 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.8% | 68% | 12 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.2% | 66% | 14 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 11 | 0.16 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +0bp | 58% | 22 | 0.15 | · |
Why this probability
DRC quota cuts real but toward-zero starves its own revenue; full halt unlikely in window. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.