What if M23 seizes Congo's tin and tungsten belt?
M23 taking Maniema/Walikale chokes tin and tungsten, so the actionable move is in those metals (LME tin, APT/ferro-tungsten), not the generic equity risk-off the cascade shows -- DRC is a top global tin/tantalum source. Rhymes with the 2010-2011 Dodd-Frank conflict-minerals squeeze and 2022 tin's spike above $50k. Transmission runs DRC -> Rwanda smuggling -> Malaysian/Chinese smelters -> solder for electronics; China dominates tungsten. Forward angle: thin inventories make this a metals-specific spike, not a beta event.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. M23 pushes beyond Kivu to capture the Maniema and Walikale tin-and-tungsten mining belt, choking a second tranche of global battery-metal supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.