What if M23 seizes Congo's tin and tungsten belt?
M23 taking Maniema/Walikale chokes tin and tungsten, so the actionable move is in those metals (LME tin, APT/ferro-tungsten), not the generic equity risk-off the cascade shows -- DRC is a top global tin/tantalum source. Rhymes with the 2010-2011 Dodd-Frank conflict-minerals squeeze and 2022 tin's spike above $50k. Transmission runs DRC -> Rwanda smuggling -> Malaysian/Chinese smelters -> solder for electronics; China dominates tungsten. Forward angle: thin inventories make this a metals-specific spike, not a beta event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. M23 pushes beyond Kivu to capture the Maniema and Walikale tin-and-tungsten mining belt, choking a second tranche of global battery-metal supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.0% hist -0.29–+9.55% · other way -5.62% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.12–-0.47% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.14–+0.44% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.88–-0.33% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.23–-0.12% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.78–-0.17% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.4–+0.03% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.44–+1.11% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.89–+0.24% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.95–+0.94% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.27–+1.21% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.95–+0.81% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.02–+0.67% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.47–+3.44% · other way +18.79% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade SHORT on MU/SMH: the +3% history is the AI-capex/memory-up cycle swamping a Congo tin-tungsten channel, and MU's 2017 North-Korea analogues are too stale and off-driver to trust.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +3.6% | 70% | 33 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.4% | 69% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -5.8% | 69% | 24 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.1% | 65% | 27 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.7% | 63% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -6.9% | 63% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 31 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 31 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +1.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
M23 momentum genuine in 2025-26; expansion to new mining belt plausible despite Doha talks A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.