What if DXY softens as a crude glut cools US inflation?
Falling oil prices compress the US inflation premium and pull forward Fed easing, weakening the dollar against pro-cyclical and EM currencies; the weaker DXY further supports risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Falling oil prices compress the US inflation premium and pull forward Fed easing, weakening the dollar against pro-cyclical and EM currencies; the weaker DXY further supports risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.41–+11.8% · other way +14.03% (n=5) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.43–+3.79% · other way -5.62% (n=5) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.2–+1.26% · other way +0.25% (n=5) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.19–+4.57% · other way -0.58% (n=5) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–+0.04% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.43% · other way -0.92% (n=5) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.12–+8.88% · other way +2.36% (n=5) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.31–+1.05% · other way +0.33% (n=5) |
| 10 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.87–+0.48% · other way -1.69% (n=5) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.04–+0.33% · other way -0.13% (n=5) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.59–+1.24% · other way +12.84% (n=5) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.21–+0.85% · other way +0.55% (n=5) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.06–+0.49% · other way +0.41% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -4.4% | 73% | 21 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 72% | 11 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.1% | 67% | 23 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +2bp | 70% | 22 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 17 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 21 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 17 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 11 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.8% · 5d +5.9% | 57% | 8 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.2% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 19 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -7.9% ↺ fades | 48% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |