What if Ecuador breaks down into a narco-state?
Ecuador's state breakdown militarizing its Pacific oil ports is a small crude leg -- Ecuador exports ~0.4mbd of heavy Oriente/Napo, so +2.4% Brent is generous. Rhymes with the 2023 Noboa state-of-emergency/prison-war shock, which hit Ecuadorian sovereign spreads far more than oil. Transmission: US west-coast and Asian refiners take Ecuadorian heavy; the real damage is to Ecuador's dollarized fiscal position and eurobonds. Forward: this is an EM-credit/heavy-diff trade, not a global oil event.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cartel-fueled prison wars and assassinations collapse Ecuadorian state control, militarizing its key Pacific oil-export ports. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.