What if Egypt and Asian LNG import recovery tightens spot summer cargoes?
A rebound in Egyptian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi LNG buying after price relief absorbs surplus summer cargoes, tightening the spot market and putting a floor under TTF and JKM.
14%
our model probability over 6–18 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 14%· 90% range 5–24%· 40 analogues · measured class energy 89% in 18 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — energy ≈1.4869/yr → 89% in 18 mo89%
Analyst prior · editorial share 16% of the class14%
Pooled · weight 87%15%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)15%
Published14%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A rebound in Egyptian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi LNG buying after price relief absorbs surplus summer cargoes, tightening the spot market and putting a floor under TTF and JKM. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
Natural gasNGon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▲ +0.2%
hist -10.33–+1.77% · other way +10.12% (n=12)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock 1979-01↗Silver Thursday 1980-03↗Gold peaks at $850 1980-01↗Iran hostage crisis / US freezes Iranian assets 1979-11↗Iranian Revolution oil shock 1978-12↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗Israel strikes Iran — Operation Rising Lion 2025-06↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗Henry Hub natural gas falls to an all-time inflation-adjusted low on record output 2024-11↗October 2024 Iranian ballistic-missile attack on Israel 2024-10↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗Niger coup d'etat 2023-07↗PJM grid emergency during Winter Storm Elliott 2022-12↗August 2022 hot CPI 2022-09↗Powell's hawkish 'pain' speech at Jackson Hole 2022-08↗Turkish lira record low on rate cuts 2021-11↗European gas crisis intraday record spike 2021-10↗Texas grid failure during Winter Storm Uri 2021-02↗Gold closes above $2,000/oz for the first time 2020-08↗Norilsk Nickel Arctic diesel spill 2020-05↗Saudi-Russia oil price war 2020-03↗February 2018 hot wage print triggers rate scare 2018-02↗North Korea sixth nuclear test 2017-09↗North Korea 'fire and fury' nuclear scare 2017-08↗OPEC abandons output defense, opting for market share vs US shale 2014-11↗Gold futures velocity-logic flash crash 2014-01↗Gold all-time peak of $1,921/oz 2011-09↗Egyptian revolution / Mubarak uprising 2011-01↗Crude oil all-time high 2008-07↗Crude oil all-time high 2008-07↗ECB's ill-timed pre-crisis rate hike 2008-07↗Henry Hub natural gas spot price peaks during 2008 commodity boom 2008-07↗Platinum hits all-time record near $2,290 on South African power crisis 2008-03↗South Africa Eskom power emergency spikes platinum/PGMs 2008-01↗Amaranth Advisors natural-gas blowup 2006-09↗Northeast blackout cascading grid failure hits ~55 million 2003-08↗Soviet August coup attempt against Gorbachev 1991-08↗1990-91 recession onset 1990-07↗Argentina hyperinflation peak / Alfonsin early handover 1989-07↗1986 oil price collapse bottoms below $10 a barrel 1986-07↗