What if India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty?
Treaty suspension is a headline; absent physical storage India cannot actually withhold Chenab/Jhelum flows near-term, so the real channel is PKR and Pakistan sovereign risk, not a 4% Nasdaq drawdown. Rhymes with 2019 Balakot — Pakistani markets and the rupee took the pain while Indian equities shrugged. Transmission is asymmetric: Pakistan's 23% of GDP agriculture and Punjab breadbasket depend on these flows; the global-equity cascade modeled here is the weakest link.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty after a crisis, threatening Pakistan's irrigation and triggering regional food alarm. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.