What if India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty?
Treaty suspension is a headline; absent physical storage India cannot actually withhold Chenab/Jhelum flows near-term, so the real channel is PKR and Pakistan sovereign risk, not a 4% Nasdaq drawdown. Rhymes with 2019 Balakot — Pakistani markets and the rupee took the pain while Indian equities shrugged. Transmission is asymmetric: Pakistan's 23% of GDP agriculture and Punjab breadbasket depend on these flows; the global-equity cascade modeled here is the weakest link.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty after a crisis, threatening Pakistan's irrigation and triggering regional food alarm. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.8% hist +1.09–+8.55% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.04–-1.18% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.7–-0.04% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.63–+0.08% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.35–+0.3% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.7–+5.63% · other way +30.6% (n=12) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.34–+0.85% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.23–+0.31% · other way +2.98% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.89–+4.86% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.96–+0.08% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.5–+3.9% · other way -2.27% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.75–+0.63% · other way +2.6% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.51–+0.47% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.02–+1.73% · other way +1.33% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT MSTR/COIN: their +14% history is pure regime contamination — those 2023-25 windows fired during BTC's structural bull, not because a Pakistan water crisis is bullish crypto.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.9% · 5d +6.2% | 88% | 8 | 0.68 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +14.3% | 68% | 19 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -8.3% ↺ fades | 75% | 8 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.2% | 70% | 23 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 69% | 16 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 65% | 28 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 16 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 12 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +1.2% | 62% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Already suspended/in abeyance since 2025; formal full suspension after fresh crisis is live near-term risk. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.