What if Red Sea reopening normalizes freight and collapses diesel cracks?
Restored Suez transit shortens distillate voyages and frees tanker capacity, collapsing the freight-driven diesel premium; cracks normalize and delivered product costs fall across the Atlantic.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Restored Suez transit shortens distillate voyages and frees tanker capacity, collapsing the freight-driven diesel premium; cracks normalize and delivered product costs fall across the Atlantic. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.41–+4.84% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.5–+4.36% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.5–+11.56% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.23–+1.34% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.78–+1.28% · other way +7.76% (n=7) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -7.24–+9.08% · other way +0.72% (n=7) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.51–+1.13% · other way -0.1% (n=7) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -3.0–+10.51% · other way +10.9% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -5.69–+9.46% · other way +3.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 21 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -5.2% | 71% | 20 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 10 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 20 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +3bp | 68% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 18 | 0.09 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 10 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -8.6% ↺ fades | 54% | 10 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.5% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +4bp | 44% | 21 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 37% | 15 | 0.00 | · |