What if Egypt gas-export halt as domestic demand swallows output?
Surging domestic power demand forces Egypt to halt LNG exports and even import gas, erasing an FX-earning sector and widening the external deficit during peak season.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Surging domestic power demand forces Egypt to halt LNG exports and even import gas, erasing an FX-earning sector and widening the external deficit during peak season. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.77–+0.05% · other way +0.04% (n=11) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.17–+0.2% · other way -0.27% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.78–+3.06% · other way -0.85% (n=10) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.09–+0.2% · other way +9.47% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+1.42% · other way +23.0% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.52–+0.58% · other way +4.63% (n=10) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–+0.1% · other way -0.77% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–+0.31% · other way -0.18% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.76–+1.29% · other way +5.03% (n=10) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.24–+0.35% · other way -0.18% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 32 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 33 | 0.26 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 33 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 33 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 33 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.1% | 52% | 22 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 22 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 41% | 24 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |