What if Red Sea convoy regime restores tanker flows?
A standing multinational escort system makes Red Sea tanker transit reliable again, draining the war-risk premium on diesel and jet-fuel cargoes routed via Suez.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A standing multinational escort system makes Red Sea tanker transit reliable again, draining the war-risk premium on diesel and jet-fuel cargoes routed via Suez. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Jet fuel ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -4.0% hist -8.96–+1.01% · other way +13.32% (n=7) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.39–+1.38% · other way -0.36% (n=7) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.41–+1.05% · other way -0.44% (n=7) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.01–+1.25% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -6.72–+12.03% · other way -2.89% (n=7) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.01–+6.02% · other way -4.61% (n=4) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.21–+0.7% · other way +0.74% (n=7) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.22–+3.91% · other way -2.63% (n=4) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.32–+7.88% · other way -0.12% (n=6) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–+0.01% · other way +1.06% (n=7) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.0–+2.36% · other way -1.73% (n=7) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.23–+1.02% · other way -0.06% (n=7) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.6–+1.32% · other way +3.74% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 18 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +31.2% · 5d +9.4% | 79% | 6 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +1.2% | 78% | 17 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.8% | 74% | 18 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -0.8% | 72% | 17 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.9% | 74% | 18 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -4.1% | 72% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 17 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 9 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 17 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 59% | 10 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 17 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 16 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |