What if a dollar surge squeezes EM dollar funding and forces reserve drawdowns across emerging markets?
A surge in the dollar and US real yields squeezes EM dollar funding, forcing reserve drawdowns and carry unwinds across emerging markets and tightening external financing.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surge in the dollar and US real yields squeezes EM dollar funding, forcing reserve drawdowns and carry unwinds across emerging markets and tightening external financing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.3–+0.79% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.49–+0.02% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.75–+1.35% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 4 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.87–+-0.0% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 5 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.11–+1.12% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -11.62–+3.33% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.46–+0.25% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.66–+1.83% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 9 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.27–+0.16% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -11.26–+3.19% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.14% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.98–+3.99% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 13 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.8–+0.3% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -7.5% | 79% | 14 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -5.4% | 75% | 16 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -4.2% | 68% | 22 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.7% | 64% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |