What if EM-FX gap-risk explodes as weekend headlines reprice the open?
A weekend policy or geopolitical shock gaps EM currencies sharply at the Monday open, leaving carry traders unable to exit at prior levels and forcing capitulation selling.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A weekend policy or geopolitical shock gaps EM currencies sharply at the Monday open, leaving carry traders unable to exit at prior levels and forcing capitulation selling. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.5% hist +0.68–+3.25% · other way -7.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.19–-0.64% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.88–-0.02% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.39–+0.63% · other way -0.86% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.92–-0.27% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.21–-0.16% · other way +23.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.84–-0.26% · other way -3.36% (n=10) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.15–-0.04% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.71–+0.37% · other way +3.85% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -8.11–+1.68% · other way +4.52% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.74–+0.85% · other way +10.63% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.45–-0.15% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.61–-0.03% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.5% | 68% | 24 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.3% · 5d +1.6% | 56% | 15 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |