What if EM real-rate carry super-cycle pulls in record cross-border inflows?
Wide positive EM real-rate differentials versus DM persist long enough to draw a structural carry-allocation wave, lifting the high-yielder basket and compressing local-bond yields.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Wide positive EM real-rate differentials versus DM persist long enough to draw a structural carry-allocation wave, lifting the high-yielder basket and compressing local-bond yields. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -8.57–+3.08% |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.3% hist -7.55–+1.42% |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.12–+0.64% |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.19–+0.83% |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.02–+1.83% |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -5.64–+5.1% |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.25–+0.23% |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.37–+3.69% |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -5.25–+4.05% |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.69–+0.59% |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -6.3–+4.78% |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.54–+1.07% |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.28–-0.1% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -0.7% | 78% | 18 | 0.53 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 72% | 18 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 78% | 18 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -5.7% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.6% | 67% | 18 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 18 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -4.6% | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -2bp | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -4.2% | 67% | 3 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 18 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |