What if EM real-rate premium attracts global bond tourists?
Elevated EM real policy rates versus developed peers attract global bond tourists into local markets, strengthening currencies and compressing local yields.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Elevated EM real policy rates versus developed peers attract global bond tourists into local markets, strengthening currencies and compressing local yields. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.78–+1.06% |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.64–+0.48% |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.69–+0.83% |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.18% |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.48–+2.36% |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -8.02–+2.36% |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+0.2% |
| 9 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.39% |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.59–+0.37% |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.11–+0.39% |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.1–+0.49% |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.32–+2.85% |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -5.55–+3.79% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -0.5% | 72% | 30 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 68% | 30 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.0% | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 46% | 35 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 49% | 31 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |