What if emerging-Asia electronics suppliers face order cancellations as the AI capex cycle turns?
Emerging-Asia electronics and component suppliers feeding the AI build-out face order cancellations and FX pressure as the capex cycle turns down.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Emerging-Asia electronics and component suppliers feeding the AI build-out face order cancellations and FX pressure as the capex cycle turns down. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.84–+0.04% · other way +10.73% (n=11) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.61–-0.26% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.99–+0.21% · other way +1.38% (n=10) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.4–+0.32% · other way -1.56% (n=11) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.63–-0.12% · other way +1.87% (n=11) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.84–+0.76% · other way -2.85% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.62–-0.14% · other way -1.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.35–+2.66% · other way +0.53% (n=11) |
| 9 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.75–+0.04% · other way -2.43% (n=11) |
| 10 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.7–+0.8% · other way -1.53% (n=11) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.93–+0.62% · other way +1.61% (n=11) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.14% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 13 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.7–+0.73% · other way -1.63% (n=11) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–-0.07% · other way -0.21% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.7% | 71% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.28 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.22 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.2% | 60% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.9% | 57% | 33 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |