What if Energy-efficient accelerators break the AI power-cost ceiling?
Order-of-magnitude gains in performance-per-watt relax the power constraint on AI, extending the compute build-out runway and re-rating efficient-silicon leaders.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Order-of-magnitude gains in performance-per-watt relax the power constraint on AI, extending the compute build-out runway and re-rating efficient-silicon leaders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist -0.24–+3.58% · other way -0.68% (n=10) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.68–+1.28% · other way -0.01% (n=10) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.49–+0.95% · other way -0.71% (n=10) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.37–+1.14% · other way +0.98% (n=10) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -3.35–+3.87% · other way +1.73% (n=10) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.26–+1.49% · other way -1.48% (n=10) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.44–+0.77% · other way -0.13% (n=10) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.19–+1.12% · other way +4.71% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.38–+0.76% · other way -0.41% (n=10) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.44–+1.22% · other way -5.77% (n=10) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -16.78–+5.61% · other way -7.36% (n=10) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.29–+1.76% · other way -3.11% (n=10) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -8.13–+20.14% · other way +8.91% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.5% · 5d -9.8% | 92% | 10 | 0.57 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +1.2% | 77% | 13 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +18.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 76% | 12 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.5% | 79% | 12 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.6% | 79% | 12 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.7% | 72% | 12 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.1% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 12 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 71% | 13 | 0.31 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 12 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 13 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -5.8% | 61% | 13 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |