What if Energy-equity volatility spikes as oil whipsaws on supply headlines?
Geopolitical supply headlines drive sharp two-way crude moves, spiking energy-equity volatility and widening dispersion between integrated, E&P and service names.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Geopolitical supply headlines drive sharp two-way crude moves, spiking energy-equity volatility and widening dispersion between integrated, E&P and service names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -0.04–+1.72% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -3.32–+1.74% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.5–+0.93% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.17–+0.54% · other way +8.11% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.15–+1.07% · other way -2.15% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.06–+1.08% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.09–-0.15% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.61–+1.17% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.11% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.36–+1.96% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.86–+0.79% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–+0.02% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.46–+1.0% · other way +7.71% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +2.5% | 70% | 15 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 37 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.1% | 68% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -4.0% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -5.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 15 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | · |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 53% | 33 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +5bp | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 46% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |