What if Energy-shock recession grips German industry?
A renewed gas spike tips energy-intensive German manufacturing into recession, lifting euro-area recession signals and pressuring the DAX and the euro.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed gas spike tips energy-intensive German manufacturing into recession, lifting euro-area recession signals and pressuring the DAX and the euro. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.98–+4.83% · other way -1.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.9–+0.79% · other way +21.08% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.48–+0.26% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.09–+0.94% · other way +3.35% (n=10) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.55–+2.58% · other way -7.85% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.58–+0.14% · other way +6.17% (n=10) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–-0.01% · other way +0.58% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–+0.81% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–+0.23% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.53–+0.05% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 12 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+1.07% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.58–+9.31% · other way +21.74% (n=10) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.47–+1.5% · other way +0.57% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 33 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.4% | 66% | 27 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +2.8% | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 27 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +1.4% | 57% | 7 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 27 | 0.07 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 27 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.9% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |