What if EU AI Act enforcement cripples US big tech in Europe?
Aggressive EU AI Act enforcement is a localized capex drag: it trims NVDA/AVGO/Micron via softer European hyperscaler spend, but the hit is small because US/Asia demand dominates the order book. Rhymes with prior EU big-tech actions (GDPR, the Google antitrust fines) that dented sentiment more than earnings. Skeptic's read: this is a compliance-cost and deployment-friction story, not a training-demand collapse, so any semi selloff on the headline is a fade unless enforcement extends to chip exports.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Aggressive EU AI Act enforcement cripples US big-tech operations in Europe. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.