What if a compound EU drought and heatwave sharply cuts wheat, maize, and rapeseed yields?
A compound drought and heatwave year cuts EU wheat, maize and rapeseed yields sharply, lifting European food inflation in the chronic-and-acute combination the ECB and EEA flag.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A compound drought and heatwave year cuts EU wheat, maize and rapeseed yields sharply, lifting European food inflation in the chronic-and-acute combination the ECB and EEA flag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.