What if a record European heatwave cuts labor output and cripples power generation?
A record European heatwave (exceeding 2003/2022) lifts mortality, cuts labor and power output, and damages crops, the compound acute-heat shock the ECB and EEA increasingly model.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A record European heatwave (exceeding 2003/2022) lifts mortality, cuts labor and power output, and damages crops, the compound acute-heat shock the ECB and EEA increasingly model. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · European energy ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.16–+1.31% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.41–+0.7% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.37–+0.77% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -11.42–+0.69% · other way +9.59% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -4.3% | 79% | 32 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +6.7% | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 55% | 32 | 0.08 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 24 | 0.02 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 44% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 41% | 32 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +4bp | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | · |